Rogers, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

708
FXUS64 KMEG 301751
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1251 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

-Severe thunderstorms will move through the Mid-South late this
 afternoon through the overnight hours on Monday. Damaging winds,
 tornadoes, and large hail are all possible.

-Dry weather and cooler temperatures are expected Monday and
 Tuesday.

-An extremely active and unsettled pattern will begin Wednesday
 and persist through next weekend. Multiple rounds of strong
 thunderstorms will produce both a significant flooding and
 property damage threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Another mild night across the Mid-South. Temperatures are in the
mid to upper 60s with overcast skies. Showers have diminished over
the past hour and the Mid-South is currently dry. To our west, a
MCS is ongoing across the Southern Plains, anchored on a
shortwave ejecting through the Middle Mississippi Valley. This
activity is expected to weaken by sunrise as it lifts to the
northeast of the Mid-South.

The latest surface analysis places a 999mb low over central Iowa
with an attendant cold front extending southwest into Kansas City
and back into Oklahoma City. Aloft, a broad trough envelops much
of the Central Plains with a couple of embedded shortwaves
pivoting through north Texas.

A potentially significant severe weather event will setup across
the Mid-South this afternoon/evening and continue through the
overnight hours into Monday morning. Please finish your severe
weather planning by this afternoon and certainly before you go to
bed, as the bulk of the severe weather threat will occur after
sundown and through the overnight hours.

Significant instability will build across the Mid-South today as
temperatures climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s and dewpoints
top out in the mid to upper 60s. HREF guidance yields areawide
SBCAPE values of 2500 J/kg, which is very high for this time or
year. Additionally, plentiful shear and exceptional lapse rates
will be available on hand.

The atmosphere will remain mostly capped throughout much of the
day today as upper level heights build ahead of the deepening
shortwave over the Southern Plains. A few WAA showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible through early afternoon, but
activity should remain relatively quiet.

The latest hi-res guidance continues to suggest that the cap will
break by late afternoon/early evening over northeast Arkansas and
Missouri Bootheel, in response daytime heating and subtle height
falls. This area will have the highest risk of discrete
supercellular activity, as the best combination of high
instability and moderate shear overlap. The initial threat will be
large hail and tornadoes, of which both could be significant (2"
hail or larger and EF-2+ tornadoes), before transitioning to a
damaging wind threat later. Thunderstorms will quickly grow
upscale after sundown as they translate east through northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and NW Tennessee. The discrete
cells may continue east unabated, but should eventually congeal
into a cluster or line late tonight as the cold front catches up.

Another area of severe thunderstorms, aided by another shortwave
pivoting through the ArkLaTex, will develop ahead of the cold
front and likely track along and south of the I-40 corridor late
tonight through the overnight hours. All hazards will be possible,
but damaging winds and tornadoes appear to be the main threats as
storm mode should be more mixed. These storms will move rather
quickly overnight and may exit the region as early as 3 or 4 AM. A
few showers and non-severe thunderstorms will trail the main
activity through sunrise Monday, anchored along the cold front.

We will see dry and cooler conditions for Monday and Tuesday with
highs mainly in the 60s and 70s.

A busy and unsettled weather pattern will begin Wednesday and
persist through Saturday. To keep it frank, there will be a threat
for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday as well as a
threat of considerable flooding next Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday. Preliminary 7 day total rainfall will range from 5 to as
much as 15 inches or more. Stay tuned.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

The main issue this TAF period will be a rapidly moving line of
thunderstorms that will cross the region through the evening/overnight
hours. There will be some isolated showers during the day, but
coverage is not expected to be too much. Some clearing is noted in
NE AR currently and then as we move later into the afternoon,
some discrete cells may develop ahead of the main line, impacting
mostly KJBR. The line of thunderstorms will then move from
northwest to southeast, beginning around 00-02Z in NE Arkansas and
exiting the region by 10-12Z. Trailing showers and low CIGs will
prevail until Monday morning, before slowly clearing out as high
pressure starts to move in.

Gusty southwesterly winds today will shift to the northwest/north
behind the front overnight and into Monday.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...KRD